5 Predictions for Lebanese Wine in 2025

Based on my analysis of the local market and what global wine experts have said

Tasting some new wines with sleeping, well-fed Fouad

It’s that time of year again!

Admittedly, early 2025 is a tough time to gauge anything given that the effects of bigger changes (the new U.S. president, the new Lebanese president, the new Prime Minister, the fragile ceasefire agreements here and in Gaza and all snags related to them) remain to be seen. All will have an impact on agriculture, hospitality, and global trade. Similar to the effect that Trump’s immigration plans will have on U.S. agriculture, it’s too early to see if Lebanon’s workforce of Syrian refugees will be affected by the sudden political shifts in Syria.

Popular F&B spots - Aaliya’s, Terre, and Sage Parlor - which either showcased natural or local (or both) wine have closed their doors. The ones still around have changed (Cantina Sociale is not what it once was) or limited their wine lists. After the crises of 2020, there was a boom that brought about many new ventures during the 2022-2024 period. This will inevitably level out with more closures as the market adjusts but…

Lebanon is also on the cusp of coming into a lot of cash and deals during its post-war reconstruction phase and shift to a very pro-American paradigm. If the West’s adoption of Lebanon goes through, the country might see a chapter of growth in the hospitality and tourism sector (our crown jewels). The summer of 2025 could be one that sees a major influx of tourists and expats and a lot of money pouring in.

On the American end, Trump’s framework of tariffs is unclear. While he seems focused on Canada, Mexico, and China, the higher costs will backfire on U.S. businesses and consumers. Separately, the U.S. wine market has been stalled for a few years and backlogged inventory could mean a slow down on orders for containers from Beirut. Another wrench: all U.S. aid programs are on a 90-day freeze (except for emergency food programs and military financing of Israel and Egypt)¹ which will impact Lebanon (its military and agricultural industries) and neighboring countries.

I can’t predict the fallout from bigger moves happening regionally but I’ve done my best to work with what we know for now. From my research, observations, and knowledge of the local market, here are five predictions of where Lebanese wine is headed in the coming year. I also revisited two from last year’s predictions because they’re still relevant.

Make sure you click on all the links - this newsletter is resource-rich!

---

#1: Escaping the end of the world through analog joy

The apocalypse-themed, information-overload has left people feeling fatigued, lonely, and craving silver coupes of chocolate pudding. We want to put our brains on ice and live in the land of suspended disbelief. We’re escaping into decadence. Casual caviar, excessive maximalism, dinner parties with frills and bows. Americans need to party more, says The Atlantic, a skill the Lebanese have been perfecting with every crisis. The more dire things get, the more we forgive our need for numbing and ignore our need for each other.

And of course, if you look around, there are many reasons for this yearning, this need to return to controllable analog or to just hide at home. The planet is on fire, the media landscape crumbling, and Trump is back. We watched a genocide on the same devices we use to get a recipe for chicken katsu. I am not suggesting we lean into this escapism. We don’t need more of that energy in Lebanon nor do we need to project it abroad. What we can do is focus on the world-building aspect while centering it around community.

We’re getting sick of screens all the time, print is making a comeback, and we’re desperate for ways to connect without too much friction. There is a push for the non-digital in the midst of these recurring bouts of isolation but unique and comforting in-person events that seem intriguing enough to get you off your couch are hard to find. We want to be around others but we want it to be low pressure because we’re overstimulated², oversensitive, and over it. I want an activity I can do alone in public if my social battery is on 1%. I can mingle if my mood and energy allow but I can also just be a nonverbal spectator if I’m wiped out. Think film screenings or panels, craft workshops, or interactive installations.

How are wineries talking to consumers between ages 30 to 45? Even though billboards can benefit the sector as a whole, wineries should move beyond outdoor ads and the recycling TV ideas that worked in the 90s. Nostalgia is a potent drug that our comms can’t get enough of. We keep going back to the same tropes but we need to build new scaffolding for Lebanese wine’s vibe. Let’s not make it too easy though, I’d encourage a little ambiguity and depth - a move away from cultural literalism.

“Life is plenty hard, and the unexpected is always scary, but vibe-stalgia leans into a dreamlike state where the unknown is comforting and time is just a word. When we dream, we escape reality; this aesthetic allows consumers to forget their fears or specific memories, good or bad.” - Chloe Gordon for The Dieline’s Shelf Life 038: A New Aesthetic Is Trending, Meet ‘Vibe-stalgia’

→ Opportunity: We need to offer memorable, intimate gatherings that go beyond the typical wine tasting 101, where like-minded people can chill and feel safe for just a dang minute. Free wine at a cultural event isn’t enough, the winery needs to create the event itself. A launch party, a feast to mark the beginning of harvest, a retreat that revolves around foraging. Organize an outdoor screening of Sigara w Kas at the reopened Metropolis with some wine punch and a postcard of the film’s poster. It’s about direct feels and indirect sales. Facilitate house parties. Create wine kits or games they can use at home or on the road with their chosen company. Develop a line of wine-adjacent home goods by commissioning a young artist.

#2: Non-alcoholic category still awaiting disruption

Regardless of how accurate the declarations and studies are, anti-alcohol sentiment is gaining traction. It could also be a natural side effect to millennial getting older and changing their consumption habits as their bodies change —I know this applies to myself, a moderate drinker to begin with. Now in my mid-thirties, I have one drink on the rare occasion that I’m at a bar or dining out.